2024: Another Year of Predictable Unpredictability in College Admissions

As we learn year after year, the college admissions landscape is ever-evolving. Just when we think we have figured out the trends, we are hit with all kinds of new facts to consider. Whether driven by societal changes, technological advancements, or global events (I’m looking at you, COVID-19!), all we professionals can do is make our best, most educated guess on what the previous years’ data will mean for the current academic year.  

With the number of Common App applications 30% higher than just three years ago, schools are now tasked with reading through 1.56 million additional applications to fill classes roughly the same size. The Common App makes it easier for students to apply to more schools, to hedge their bets, and this rise in the number of schools per applicant makes the admissions officers’ jobs even more challenging. After all, a university is a business whose performance is largely judged by its yield (the percentage of accepted students who actually enroll.) This quest for a high yield can make the admission process frustrating and unpredictable for the applicants (and their parents!)

Early Admission is on the Rise—And So are Deferments!

Most of us know that students are applying for early admission at higher rates than ever. With roughly 50% of all college applicants applying early, either through the non-binding process of Early Action or the legally binding Early Decision, early admission has become the new Regular Decision. Not only is early applying statistically shown to improve your chance of acceptance, but it dangles that tantalizing promise of a January reveal. Hearing from your dream college by the end of January sounds amazing, right? Getting to breeze through 2nd semester of Senior year with no worries other than finding a roommate and choosing your dorm décor? Yes, please!

Unfortunately, as many (MANY!) students discovered last year, the rise in early applications resulted in an unprecedented rise in deferments. To avoid filling up too much of their freshman class with early admission applicants, many colleges kicked the can down the road, causing nationwide angst among high school seniors. USC deferred 94% of its roughly 40,000 early applicants, Clemson University deferred 15,000 of 26,000 early applicants (58%), and of the 45,000 applicants applying early to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, 17,000 (38%) were deferred.

What can we do in 2024 to avoid the deferment pitfalls of 2023?

Well, you’ve already taken a giant step towards preventing yourself from being knocked down by a crushing deferment wave like last year’s simply by reading this article. You are now aware of the facts and can adjust your mindset accordingly. Unfortunately, it is likely that your student’s essay writing responsibilities did not end when they hit that submit button. If your student receives word they’ve been deferred from a school they’ve dreamed of attending, their next step is to write a Letter of Continued Interest (LOCI) to let that school know they are in it for the long haul. I know, I know, you and your student barely made it out of the application process without ripping each other’s heads off, and the thought of having to nag them to write one more essay (or two or three) makes you want to throw your coffee mug at the computer screen! A professional writing coach (like ME!) can be very helpful when you just don’t have any gas left in your parent-of-a-college-applicant tank.

Are We There Yet?

So, when you are finally ready to move beyond this college application stress, have your students ask themselves these four questions:

Did I create a realistic and balanced college list with at least six schools, including three reach, two match, and one likely? Although the lines have recently become more blurred about what constitutes reach, likely (notice how we’re no longer calling these schools safeties?!), and match schools, having a wide range on their college list should put them in a comfortable spot when those admissions emails come rolling in. And please (PLEASE!) make sure that one of those likely schools is somewhere they’d be excited to attend in the fall! If the answer to this question is no, do not freak out. Remember you have until January for Regular Decision at most schools, so maybe consider applying to a couple more likely schools.

Did I spend time going deep and honestly reflecting on my positive characteristics in my personal statement essay? Whether working with a professional writing coach (like ME!) or showing their essays to a trusted adult who will spot any grammatical errors or typos, students should spend a significant amount of time on their essays, telling not just what happened but why it matters. Although it may seem obvious, answering the actual prompt is key with these essays, especially when it comes to individual colleges’ supplemental essays.  Admissions officers carefully crafted these prompts; not a single word is accidental, so students should check (and double-check) that their beautifully written essay answers every aspect of the questions.

Am I checking my email once a day to make sure I don’t miss a single thing from a college I’ve worked so hard to apply to? Honestly, I think this might be the hardest thing for my students to remember. When dealing with a generation that regards email in the same archaic way that we might have viewed telegrams (OK, I’m exaggerating here, but not by much), they need to be explicitly told to check their email daily. Colleges are communicating with applicants about everything from incomplete applications to self-reporting grades, and they expect college-ready students to be responsible enough to check their email.  

Did I write a LOCI to the school (or schools) from which I’ve been deferred but truly see myself attending? Whether you decide to work with a professional writing coach or have your students write this on their own, make sure it gets completed. Most schools will let you know how and when to submit LOCI’s and that letter may just make the difference.

If the answer to all four of these questions is yes, then sit back, take a deep breath, get cozy, and recognize that this whole process might take a while. Revel in this opportunity to do some stellar modeling for your kids about what it looks like to trust the process, knowing, like with so many things in life, that we can only control so much and that this next chapter of their story will unfold (don’t kill me for saying this!) as it is meant to, even when we can’t exactly see that.